Probability and the Synthetic a Priori : a Reply to Block
نویسنده
چکیده
Walter Block’s (2003) supposedly “entirely critical” (p. 48) reply greatly narrows the gap between our positions (Caplan 2001, 1999, 1997; Block 1999). It is a major concession for Block to admit that synthetic a priori propositions can have a low probability and empirical propositions can have a high probability. The implication, though he does not admit it, is that his initial claims most contrary to common sense are mistaken. Furthermore, on the general topic of the synthetic a priori, Block incorrectly classifies me as a logical positivist. At no point in my critique did I fault Austrians for their belief in the synthetic a priori, or dismiss any of their positions for failing to be “verifiable” or “falsifiable.” My position is not that their key arguments are methodologically flawed, but that they are mistaken. It may surprise Block, but I fully recognize the existence of synthetic a priori truths. However, most of his economic examples do not qualify. Block’s misunderstanding of my methodological position is partially understandable. Though his stereotype does not fit me, it is grounded in fact. Neoclassical methodologists have long subscribed to some version of logical positivism that working economists routinely flout. But there is no need, I shall argue, for neoclassicals to become praxeologists to eliminate the contradiction. All they need to do is jettison logical positivism and become thoroughgoing Bayesians (Howson and Urbach 1989). My reply is organized as follows. The second section shows that if synthetic a priori claims, like empirical ones, vary in probability, then Block has no reason to single out the latter as unscientific. Section three sketches my position on the synthetic a priori, and explains the value of empirical testing
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